Brent Crude Trades $67.78, $3 Above Nigeria’s 2026 Oil Benchmark Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Global oil markets opened the week with Brent crude trading at $67.78 per barrel on Monday, holding about $3 above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85. The modest gain reflects a balance between renewed U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement and persistent geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, providing limited but welcome support to Nigeria’s oil revenue projections for the year.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also edged higher, rising 2 cents to $62.86 per barrel, although no official WTI settlement occurred due to a U.S. holiday. Analysts note that while Brent has fallen roughly 0.5% and WTI about 1% over the past week, controlled supply and cautious investor sentiment are keeping prices relatively stable. For Nigeria, maintaining oil above the budget benchmark helps cushion fiscal expectations tied to crude-dependent revenues.
Diplomatic developments are a key factor shaping current market movements. Traders are closely monitoring renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program. Recent U.S. statements hinting at a potential deal have pressured prices downwards, while the deployment of additional U.S. naval forces and warnings from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards underscore lingering regional risks. This combination of optimism and uncertainty has kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.
On the supply side, the OPEC+ alliance is signaling a resumption of previously paused output increases from April, aiming to stabilize markets amid expected peak summer demand. Controlled production adjustments are designed to prevent sharp price swings, though any disruption along Middle East supply routes could tighten global crude availability, potentially pushing prices higher. This delicate balance between supply management and geopolitical uncertainty is expected to keep Brent trading in a narrow band in the near term.
Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal framework is based on a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel and an oil production target of 2.6 million barrels per day. Recent trading data showed Bonny Light dipping below $69 last week, mirroring global price softness. Despite minor fluctuations, Brent’s current level offers a modest but important boost to Nigeria’s budgeted oil revenues, highlighting the ongoing interplay between global diplomacy, regional security, and energy market dynamics.
source: nairametrics