Crude Oil Nears $70 Amid US-Iran Tensions, Sparking Global Market Volatility

Crude oil prices surged toward $70 per barrel this week, climbing from $67 last week, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran sparked fears of potential supply disruptions. The uptick comes after nuclear talks in Oman collapsed, failing to reconcile differences between the two nations and adding pressure to global energy markets.

The situation intensified when the US Department of Transportation advised American-flagged commercial vessels to steer clear of Iranian waters, fueling speculation of further geopolitical friction. Market checks by Vanguard revealed that Brent crude traded at $69.25 per barrel, while Murban crude was slightly higher at $69.51, reflecting heightened volatility driven by these geopolitical concerns.

Analysts said traders are increasingly factoring in the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route. Recent US military actions against an Iranian drone and rising tensions in the Arabian Sea have intensified uncertainty, keeping investors on edge and pushing crude prices upward.

Supply-side data, however, sent mixed signals. S&P Global reported that OPEC+ production dipped to 42.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, down 270,000 bpd from December—the first monthly decline in over a year—mainly due to cuts in Kazakhstan, Russia, Nigeria, and Libya. OPEC’s own crude output fell to 28.34 million bpd, largely because of reduced production in Nigeria and Libya.

Speaking to Vanguard, Mazi Colman Obasi, National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria, described the market as “highly volatile,” warning that instability is likely to persist in the coming weeks. Despite forecasts of a global oil surplus in 2026, prices have remained elevated due to geopolitical uncertainty and opaque stockpiling in key markets such as China, analysts said.

source: vanguard