Nigeria achieved a trade surplus of $10.83 billion in the first nine months of 2025, as exports of $44.06 billion outpaced imports totaling $33.23 billion, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Quarterly Statistical Bulletin. Analysts attribute the positive balance to stronger export earnings, particularly in oil, alongside moderated import growth, signaling a steady improvement in the country’s external trade position.
The data showed average monthly export growth of 0.76%, while imports slightly declined by 0.08% per month. Monthly figures revealed the largest surplus in June at $1.89 billion, with export peaks in July at $5.85 billion. Experts say these trends reflect the impact of ongoing economic reforms, improved refinery capacity, and relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
Oil remains the dominant contributor to Nigeria’s trade surplus, accounting for 84% of total exports with $37.13 billion, while non-oil exports contributed $6.93 billion. Industry stakeholders, however, caution that the heavy reliance on crude oil makes the surplus vulnerable to global price shocks. Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo, former chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce Export Group, stressed the urgency of boosting non-oil exports to safeguard the country’s economic gains.
Agriculture and local production are increasingly seen as near-term solutions to strengthen trade diversification. Investments in rice, cassava, and soybean production, along with trade agreements like CEPA, provide opportunities to expand non-oil export markets. Segun Kuti-George, NASSI Vice President, noted that enhanced agricultural output and domestic refining, supported by improved currency market conditions, have contributed to reducing import dependence.
While agriculture offers short-term wins, stakeholders highlight the importance of manufacturing for sustainable growth. Manufacturers argue that value addition and processing of raw produce into higher-value products could boost non-oil exports. However, structural and regulatory hurdles, including delays in ETLS approvals and bureaucratic inefficiencies, remain challenges. Experts agree that sustaining Nigeria’s $10.83 billion trade surplus requires consistent support for non-oil sectors and strategic export promotion.
source: punch