Nigeria Crude Oil Exports Set to Fall 14% in March Amid Bonga and Forcados Cutbacks

Nigeria’s crude oil exports are expected to drop by about 14% in March 2026, falling to roughly 793,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to preliminary loading schedules reported by Reuters. The decline comes despite modest increases in some key crude grades, highlighting ongoing volatility in the country’s oil export flows as Nigeria seeks to stabilise output and boost foreign exchange earnings.

The projected March figure represents a notable decrease from February’s scheduled exports of around 922,000 bpd. Analysts attribute the fall primarily to sharp reductions in two major offshore grades—Bonga and Forcados—while lighter onshore grades such as Qua Iboe and Bonny Light see incremental gains. Qua Iboe is projected to rise to 184,000 bpd from 170,000 bpd in February, and Bonny Light to 282,000 bpd from 269,000 bpd, but these increases are outweighed by the steep drops in Bonga (61,000 bpd from 139,000 bpd) and Forcados (266,000 bpd from 344,000 bpd).

Historically, Nigeria’s crude export schedules are prone to month-to-month fluctuations due to a mix of operational, technical, and market-related factors. Security challenges, pipeline vandalism, and infrastructure constraints in the Niger Delta region have often disrupted flows from major production hubs. Global market dynamics, including pricing, quality differentials, and refiners’ demand, further affect which grades experience stronger or weaker offtake in a given month.

The timing of this projected decline is significant, as crude oil remains Nigeria’s main source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Sustained reductions in export volumes could affect oil receipts, fiscal planning, and currency stability, even if global oil prices show improvement. Shipping schedules for crude cargoes may be adjusted, added, or deferred depending on operational developments and market conditions.

Experts caution that these projections are subject to change, as crude oil export programmes are often revised multiple times before confirmation. Nonetheless, data from 2025 underscores Nigeria’s continued dependence on oil, with exports generating N37.7 trillion in the first nine months and the country emerging as Africa’s top crude supplier to the United States in the first eight months of the year. The March outlook therefore, reflects both ongoing operational challenges and Nigeria’s critical reliance on crude exports for economic stability.

source: nairametrics