The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast upward to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, reflecting growing confidence in the country’s macroeconomic stability. This positive revision aligns with a similar outlook released by the World Bank, which also projected 4.4% growth for Nigeria in 2026 and 2027. Analysts point to ongoing economic reforms and sector rebounds as central factors supporting this improvement.
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF also raised growth projections for the wider Sub-Saharan Africa region, forecasting 4.4% growth in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027. These revisions represent a modest increase from October 2025 estimates, indicating steady recovery momentum across several regional economies, including Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa.
IMF Division Chief Deniz Igan highlighted that the upward revision was driven by three main factors: strong commodity prices, effective macroeconomic stabilization efforts, and ongoing structural reforms in key economies. She noted that a stable macroeconomic environment, combined with favorable commodity movements, has strengthened growth prospects for the region, while supportive global financial conditions have further bolstered confidence.
Despite the positive outlook, the IMF cautioned that risks remain. Potential cuts in international development assistance and possible tightening in global financial conditions could disproportionately impact low-income and fragile economies within Sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the forecast reflects a significant improvement over earlier projections, including the June 2025 World Bank estimate of 3.7% growth for Nigeria in 2026.
Globally, the IMF expects overall economic growth to hold at 3.3% in 2026, with the United States and China contributing most to the improvement. The surge in investment in the information technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, has played a key role in supporting global growth. While manufacturing activity remains modest, the IT investment boom is generating positive spillovers worldwide, including for Asia’s technology exports.
source: leadership