Nigeria–China Crude Oil Trade Poised for Growth as Venezuela Supplies Slump

Nigeria’s crude oil trade with China is expected to expand following a sharp decline in Venezuela’s oil exports to the Asian giant, triggered by prolonged U.S. sanctions and shipping disruptions. Analysts say China’s reduced access to Venezuelan crude is creating supply gaps that Nigeria is well-positioned to fill.

China’s oil imports from Venezuela are projected to fall significantly in February, with deliveries estimated at just 166,000 barrels per day. This marks a steep drop from previous levels, as only about five million barrels of Venezuelan crude and fuel oil have left the country in recent weeks, according to analysts and traders cited by Reuters. Several tankers bound for China have reportedly been forced to return to Venezuelan waters amid enforcement of a U.S. oil blockade.

Nigeria already plays a key role in China’s energy supply chain, exporting large volumes of crude oil and natural gas. Mineral fuels account for nearly 90 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to China, followed by ores and other solid minerals. In 2023 alone, Nigeria’s mineral fuel exports to China were valued at approximately $1.41 billion, according to data from Intelpoint.

Despite China’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern and Russian crude, Nigeria remains a strategic and relatively stable supplier. Chinese companies, including CNOOC, have made significant investments in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, particularly in offshore developments. Trade analysts also note that proposed zero-tariff access for Nigerian goods could further strengthen bilateral trade relations.

By contrast, Venezuela’s oil shipments to China have nearly stalled. Exports that averaged about 642,000 barrels per day in 2025 have fallen sharply, as U.S. forces have seized multiple tankers and restricted Asia-bound cargoes. With Chinese refiners cutting back purchases due to narrowing price discounts on Venezuelan crude, Nigeria stands to benefit as China seeks alternative, reliable sources to meet its energy demand.

source: Leadership