Economic analysts have warned that Nigeria’s inflation rate may record a temporary rebound in December as year-end festivities drive higher consumer spending, particularly on food and transportation. The outlook was contained in separate analysts’ reports released on Monday, despite Nigeria recording its seventh consecutive month of easing inflation in November.
According to the latest data, headline inflation moderated to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, down from 16.05 per cent in October, remaining below the Federal Government’s 15 per cent projection. However, month-on-month inflation rose to 1.22 per cent from 0.93 per cent, while food inflation climbed to 1.13 per cent, reflecting early signs of festive-season demand pressures.
In its macroeconomic update, CardinalStone attributed the year-on-year slowdown in inflation largely to improved food supply conditions driven by the harvest season. Food inflation eased to 11.08 per cent year-on-year, while core inflation softened to 18.04 per cent, supported by moderating gas prices and relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
However, CardinalStone noted that the month-on-month rise was expected, pointing to frontloaded spending linked to Christmas and New Year celebrations. The firm cautioned that inflation could temporarily spike in December due to base-year effects, projecting a sharp increase before inflation begins to normalise from January 2026.
Similarly, Coronation Asset Management projected a reversal of the current disinflation trend at year-end, citing festive demand, higher transport activity during holiday travel, rising logistics costs, and persistent food supply challenges. The firm added that insecurity in key food-producing regions and increased yuletide consumption could further intensify upward pressure on prices.
source: punch