Nigeria’s federal government is under fresh scrutiny after revealing a ₦30 trillion shortfall in its 2025 revenue, casting doubts on the feasibility of the 2026 budget. The shortfall, admitted by Finance Minister Wale Edun, highlights persistent borrowing, overlapping budgets, and delays in capital project execution, fueling concerns among lawmakers about the country’s fiscal discipline.
During a session with the Senate Committee on Finance in Abuja, Edun disclosed that while the government projected ₦40 trillion in revenue for 2025, actual cash receipts were only around ₦10 trillion. “This means nearly 70 percent of capital projects will spill over into 2026,” he told senators, confirming that Nigeria is effectively operating multiple budgets in a single fiscal year.
Lawmakers expressed frustration over the situation, with Senator Danjuma Goje calling it “ugly” and warning that such trends undermine public confidence and fiscal accountability. Questions also arose about the deployment of over ₦17 trillion borrowed within the first ten months of 2025, including ₦15.8 trillion domestically and ₦1.56 trillion externally, at a time when revenue inflows were weak.
Concerns extended to job creation and economic growth, as Senator Adams Oshiomhole highlighted how stalled capital projects directly limit employment opportunities. Meanwhile, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) defended revenue projections as estimates that only materialize when cash is collected, though senators insisted on raising the 2026 revenue target from ₦31 trillion to ₦35 trillion to ensure more aggressive domestic revenue mobilization.
The proposed 2026 budget stands at ₦54.5 trillion, with projected revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, implying a ₦20 trillion deficit. Key assumptions include crude oil output of 1.84 million barrels per day, a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, an exchange rate of ₦1,512 per dollar, and GDP growth of 4.68 percent. Lawmakers remain cautious, noting delays in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) submission and historical revenue underperformance, signaling calls for more realistic planning and stronger fiscal oversight.
source: Business day