Nigeria’s GDP Set for 4.22% Rebound in Q4 2025 as Economy Strengthens — Report

Nigeria’s economy is expected to close the year on a stronger note, as analysts at CardinalStone project a rebound in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 4.22% in Q4 2025, up from 3.98% recorded in Q3. The firm described the outlook as a positive sign that the economy is gaining momentum after a softer performance earlier in the year.

The projection was highlighted in CardinalStone’s latest Macro Research note, which followed the release of new data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Nigeria’s GDP growth in Q3 2025 came in slightly higher than the 3.86% recorded in the same period of 2024, but below the 4.23% posted in Q2. Analysts noted that the mild dip had been anticipated due to weaker oil output and waning base effects.

CardinalStone said Q4 is shaping up to be more promising, supported by improving macroeconomic indicators and stronger business activity. The firm pointed to November’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which showed broad expansion across sectors, signalling healthier output. If these trends hold, Nigeria could finish the year with full-year GDP growth of 3.92%.

A closer look at Q3 performance revealed mixed outcomes across sectors. Oil production moderated to 1.64 million barrels per day because of maintenance activities and delays in the operation of key facilities. However, the non-oil sector maintained its resilience, benefiting from currency appreciation and easing inflation. Stronger domestic consumption lifted trade activities, while banks enjoyed higher yields and increased fee income. Conversely, growth slowed in the ICT sector due to ongoing SIM card deactivations, and manufacturing remained subdued as high borrowing costs discouraged expansion.

Other market watchers shared similar optimism. Stanbic IBTC’s Head of Equity Research for West Africa, Muyiwa Oni, projected 4.0% GDP growth for 2025 and expects more sectors to contribute to output in 2026 as investment flows improve and inflation eases. Comercio Partners described the economy as “two-speed,” with non-oil sectors holding steady and oil still constrained by operational challenges. Meristem Securities also forecast a Q4 recovery, estimating growth at 4.08% year-on-year.

source: punch