Nigerian Crude Oil Surges Above $65 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC+ Decisions

Nigerian crude oil prices climbed above the $65 per barrel mark on Monday, driven by growing geopolitical tensions and supply disruption concerns. Key grades including Brass River, Bonny Light, and Qua Iboe recorded significant gains, while global benchmarks such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude also edged higher. Analysts say this marks a temporary rebound following a four-month decline due to oversupply earlier this year.

The recent price uptick was fueled by new conflicts affecting global oil infrastructure. Drone strikes damaged Russia’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, temporarily halting Kazakh crude shipments, which account for about 1.6 million barrels per day or roughly 1% of global supply. Meanwhile, uncertainty around a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could influence future oil flows, limiting the upside for crude prices.

Supply concerns are also intensifying in Venezuela, where geopolitical developments have raised the risk of disruption to its roughly 800,000 barrels per day exports. The United States has increased its military presence in the region amid escalating tensions, further fueling uncertainty in global markets. OPEC+ maintained its steady production stance, citing concerns over oversupply, while authorizing only minor adjustments for December, signaling cautious optimism among member nations.

Nigeria’s oil fundamentals remain promising despite global volatility. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) recently opened bids for 50 oil blocks in its 2025 licensing round, spanning deepwater, onshore, shallow water, and frontier areas. The initiative is expected to attract $10 billion in investments and potentially add up to 2 billion barrels of reserves, boosting daily production by up to 400,000 barrels in the coming years.

Domestic production is also on the rise, with Nigeria’s output reaching 1.4 million barrels per day in October 2025, up from 1.39 million in September, according to OPEC. NUPRC CEO Gbenga Komolafe emphasized reduced exploration risks and enhanced geophysical data as key drivers for revitalizing underinvested assets in the Niger Delta. These developments align with President Bola Tinubu’s vision to increase Nigeria’s crude production by 1 million barrels per day, positioning the country for long-term growth in the oil sector.

source: nairametrics