Fitch Predicts Bank of Ghana Policy Rate Could Drop to 16.5% by 2026 Amid Stable Economy
Fitch Solutions has projected that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) could lower its monetary policy rate to 16.5% by the end of 2026, reflecting the country’s stable currency and declining inflation. The UK-based research firm cited Ghana’s improving macroeconomic environment as a key driver for further monetary easing, signaling a potential boost to private-sector lending and economic activity.
Speaking at the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Post-Budget Forum in Accra, Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, highlighted that Ghana’s central bank has already embarked on a bold monetary easing cycle. “Rates have remained elevated, but the Bank of Ghana launched a decisive easing cycle this summer, cutting by 650 basis points so far—the fastest monetary easing cycle globally this year,” he said.
With inflation now back within the central bank’s target range, Fitch expects the BoG to gradually reduce its benchmark rate. The easing is supported by robust foreign exchange inflows and a relatively stable currency, factors that could encourage higher private-sector borrowing after nearly three years of weak credit demand, Kruiniger noted.
Fitch Solutions also forecasts strong economic growth for Ghana in 2026, with real GDP expected to rise from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% next year. Private consumption and a recovery in fixed investment, which had sharply contracted in 2023, are seen as major growth drivers. The research firm added that the 2026 budget is broadly supportive of this positive trajectory.
However, Fitch cautioned that escalating Islamist insurgency in the Sahel region could pose risks to Ghana’s economic stability. Persistent regional insecurity may necessitate increased military spending, potentially affecting the investment climate and fiscal health. Despite these concerns, Fitch remains optimistic that Ghana’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals will support continued growth and monetary easing in 2026.
source: The sun