CBN Expected to Cut Interest Rate Again as Inflation Cools — Analysts Predict Up to 100bps Slash

As the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee concludes its November meeting today, analysts widely expect another round of interest-rate cuts, signaling a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy. Market watchers believe the MPC may reduce the benchmark rate by 25 to 100 basis points, continuing the dovish trend that began in September when the committee lowered the Monetary Policy Rate for the first time in years.

The September move saw the MPR reduced to 27%, alongside adjustments to the Standing Facilities corridor and Cash Reserve Ratios for commercial and merchant banks. Under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN had previously maintained a tough, hawkish posture to curb the record inflation of 2024. However, easing price pressures appear to have created room for the regulator to support growth without undermining stability.

According to FXTM Senior Analyst Lukman Otunuga, moderating inflation is a key driver behind expectations of another cut. Nigeria’s annual inflation eased to 16.05% in October 2025 — the lowest level since March 2022 — giving the CBN more flexibility to stimulate economic momentum. With the country’s Q3 GDP report set for release on November 28, analysts believe more indications of recovering growth could reinforce the MPC’s expansionary stance.

Research houses including Afrinvest, Cowry Assets, and Cordros Capital share this optimism, though with varying degrees of dovishness. Afrinvest forecasts a modest 25–50bps cut, citing a favourable macro environment and sustained disinflation. Cowry Assets projects a deeper 100–200bps slash as inflation cools further, although it warns that underlying structural issues—rising operating costs, weak consumer demand, and broader economic pressures—continue to weigh on real sector growth. Cordros Capital similarly sees room for a 100bps cut to 26%, noting that current conditions strongly favour continued easing.

Globally, market sentiment remains influenced by expectations of a US rate cut in December, with tech stocks driving gains. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions—including stalled Russia-Ukraine talks—continue to cast uncertainty over global markets. Despite these external pressures, Nigerian analysts maintain that improving domestic fundamentals could give the CBN enough confidence to push forward with its easing cycle while keeping inflation risks in check.

source: punch