Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings fell sharply by N3.18 trillion in the first half of 2025, even as the country boosted production by 12.7%, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Between January and June, total crude export revenues amounted to N24.92 trillion, down from N28.10 trillion in the same period of 2024, representing an 11.3% decline. Analysts say the drop highlights a growing paradox in Africa’s largest oil producer, where rising output has not translated into stronger revenues.
The first quarter of 2025 saw crude exports at N12.96 trillion, a 16.3% decline from N15.49 trillion in Q1 2024, while the second quarter recorded a smaller drop of 5.1%, from N12.61 trillion to N11.97 trillion. Crude’s share of total exports also weakened, falling from 80.8% in Q1 2024 to 62.9% in Q1 2025, and from 71.2% in Q2 2024 to 52.6% in Q2 2025. Meanwhile, non-crude exports surged, more than doubling to N18.43 trillion, driven by a 66% increase in non-oil products, reflecting a diversification in Nigeria’s export profile.
Total trade expanded in H1 2025, with overall exports rising 17.5% to N43.35 trillion and imports increasing 6.9% to N30.71 trillion. This led to an improved trade balance of N12.64 trillion, up 54.6% from H1 2024. Experts attribute the declining dominance of crude in Nigeria’s export mix to weaker global oil prices and rising domestic demand, including allocations to local refineries like Dangote Petroleum under naira-for-crude arrangements, which may be diverting volumes from international markets.
Despite falling earnings, production hit a six-month high, with Nigeria pumping 266.9 million barrels from January to June 2025—up 12.7% from 236.7 million barrels in H1 2024. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) also reported a 50.2% reduction in crude oil losses during the first seven months of 2025, cutting losses to 2.04 million barrels from 4.1 million barrels in 2024. The commission credited the improvement to stricter regulatory measures, security collaboration, and the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
Industry observers caution, however, that the drop in global crude prices could affect government revenue and budget implementation, even as it may lower domestic fuel costs. Energy experts stress that achieving daily production targets of two million barrels is critical to meeting domestic refinery needs and maintaining fuel supply stability. As Nigeria navigates this delicate balance between rising output, revenue shortfalls, and domestic demand, the oil sector’s future will hinge on pricing trends, security measures, and strategic management of both crude and non-crude exports.
source: punch