Nigeria Inflation to Ease in July 2025 as Harvest Season and Naira Stability Offer Relief
Nigeria’s headline inflation is expected to ease slightly in July 2025, with analysts projecting year-on-year figures between 22.20% and 22.80%, down marginally from June’s 22.22%. Economists say the seasonal harvest of staple crops, relative naira stability, and improved manufacturing efficiency will help slow price growth. However, stubbornly high food and transport costs are set to keep inflationary pressures elevated, limiting the extent of relief for households.
Prof. David Adonri, Vice Chairman of Highcap Securities, predicts food inflation could begin to moderate as maize, yam, and cassava harvests boost supply in the short term. He notes that Nigeria’s inflation historically responds positively to harvest cycles, provided transport networks function efficiently. The naira’s stability over the past quarter has also helped reduce the impact of imported food and agricultural input costs, creating conditions for sustained moderation in price growth.
Olatunde Amolegbe, Managing Director of Arthur Steven Asset Management, expects inflation to continue its downward trend at a slow pace. He warns that elevated food prices and transport costs will keep headline inflation “sticky,” even as lower energy costs compared to earlier in the year help cushion production and logistics expenses. Similarly, Sunday Olaitan, MD of Rostrum Investment & Securities, projects inflation to remain high but contained, citing structural cost drivers that remain entrenched despite currency stability.
Experts highlight that elevated fuel prices, ranging from ₦861 to ₦1,100 per litre this year, continue to push up transport and production costs. Persistent insecurity in farming regions, seasonal scarcity during planting cycles, and poor distribution networks are keeping food prices high. On the upside, manufacturers are beginning to offset rising raw material costs through localized sourcing and operational efficiency, which could help slow the pace of price increases.
With the Monetary Policy Rate steady at 27.5%, analysts agree that monetary tightening alone will not deliver significant short-term relief. They stress that sustained naira stability, targeted supply-side improvements, and efficient distribution channels will be crucial in keeping inflation from rising further. While July’s numbers may reflect only a modest drop, the real test will come in August and beyond, as global and domestic pressures challenge Nigeria’s inflation outlook.
Source: Nairametrics