The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upheld its growth projection for Nigeria’s economy in 2025, maintaining a 3.4 percent expansion rate despite the country’s recent GDP rebasing exercise. The forecast, reaffirmed in the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook released on July 29, highlights Nigeria’s economic resilience amid methodological changes by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s gross domestic product expanded to ₦372.8 trillion ($243 billion) in 2024, a significant increase from ₦314.02 trillion in 2023. This upward revision reflects a more inclusive approach, capturing previously underrepresented sectors in the informal economy. However, despite this broadening of economic indicators, Nigeria remains the fourth-largest economy in Africa.
The IMF’s July outlook notes no change in its earlier July 2 forecast, which had already upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 growth estimate from the 3.0 percent figure projected in April 2025. The agency’s decision to hold steady underscores its confidence in Nigeria’s economic fundamentals, even as the rebasing exercise introduces fresh statistical realities.
While Nigeria’s GDP figures have grown in absolute terms, the country has yet to reclaim its past title as Africa’s largest economy. Analysts believe that structural reforms, improved productivity, and diversification, especially beyond oil, are still required to elevate Nigeria’s regional and global economic standing.
Globally, the IMF projects modest improvement, with worldwide economic growth expected to reach 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. The slight upward revisions are attributed to several factors, including better-than-expected trade conditions, easing U.S. dollar strength, and fiscal expansion in key economies. These dynamics, while external, may also influence emerging markets like Nigeria.
Source: Business day