Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to remain elevated, with October inflation anticipated to reach 33.10%, largely due to rising fuel prices, naira depreciation, and recent flooding affecting agricultural productivity. Analysts at Cowry Assets Management suggest that the government’s fiscal and monetary policies, including a recent rate hike by the Central Bank of Nigeria and zero-duty on certain food imports, are not enough to offset these structural pressures. The impact of these challenges, compounded by supply chain inefficiencies and security issues, continues to push prices higher across the economy.
Efforts by the Monetary Policy Committee to curb inflation, such as raising the Monetary Policy Rate and increasing the Cash Reserve Ratio, have provided only limited relief. Cowry Research highlights that addressing fundamental issues like fuel scarcity, infrastructure deficiencies, and security concerns is essential for achieving meaningful inflation control. Without significant government intervention, increased transportation costs and other knock-on effects may further drive inflation in the coming months.
Inflation in Nigeria has remained volatile in 2024, nearing a three-decade high as food and transportation costs continue to rise. After peaking at 34.19% in June, inflation slightly moderated in July and August, aided by seasonal harvests, before climbing again in September to 32.7%. With continued energy price increases and rising food costs due to agricultural disruptions, projections indicate the headline inflation rate could exceed 35% by the year’s end.
