Nigerian Electricity Demand Projected to Reach 45,662 Megawatts by 2030, Exceeding Current Capacity
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has stated that electricity demand in Nigeria is expected to grow to 45,662 megawatts (MW) by 2030. However, as of December 2022, the 28 generation companies in the country have not been able to generate more than a daily average of 4,059MW. The NERC report highlights challenges including inadequate gas supply, transmission constraints, limited distribution network, and commercial viability of distribution companies.
Key Points:
- The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) predicts that electricity demand in Nigeria will grow to 45,662 MW by 2030.
- As of December 2022, the 28 generation companies in Nigeria, comprising both private and government-owned firms, have not been able to generate more than a daily average of 4,059MW.
- The installed capacity in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry increased by 7.95% from 12,132MW in December 2015 to 13,097MW in December 2022. However, average available capacity decreased during this period.
- Nigeria needs at least 30,000MW to reach sufficiency, according to experts.
- Constraints on the power industry include inadequate gas supply, transmission limitations, a restricted distribution network, and concerns about the commercial viability of distribution companies.
Analysis: The projection of electricity demand to reach 45,662 MW by 2030 highlights the significant challenge of meeting the energy needs of Nigeria’s growing population and economy. It is essential for the government and industry stakeholders to address the various constraints identified by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission. This includes ensuring an adequate and reliable supply of gas for power generation, upgrading and expanding the transmission and distribution networks, and addressing financial and regulatory issues affecting the industry. Additionally, efforts to increase generation capacity through the activation of additional contracts and agreements are steps in the right direction but need to be complemented by broader reforms to achieve sustainable and sufficient power supply in Nigeria.
