JPMorgan’s Head of EMEA Energy Equity Research, Christyan Malek, has cautioned that Brent crude prices could potentially reach $150 per barrel by 2026. This projection is attributed to factors including capacity constraints, an energy supercycle, and global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels. Recent price surges were influenced by OPEC+ production cuts, predominantly led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia’s fuel export ban. Malek anticipates Brent prices to range between $90 and $110 in the coming year, with further increases in 2025.
Key Points:
- Recent Brent price surge: The surge in Brent crude prices is attributed to OPEC+ production cuts, particularly led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia’s fuel export ban. These factors, along with increased crude demand and supply restrictions, have led to rising consumer prices.
- Malek’s warning and projections: Christyan Malek anticipates the possibility of Brent crude prices reaching $150 per barrel by 2026. He emphasizes the potential for a highly volatile energy supercycle. Malek expects Brent prices to range between $90 and $110 in the next year, with further increases projected for 2025.
- JPMorgan’s earlier assessment: In February, JPMorgan suggested that oil prices were unlikely to reach $100 per barrel in that year unless a major geopolitical event disrupted markets. They also indicated that OPEC+ might add up to 400,000 bpd to global supplies.
- Supply and demand outlook: JPMorgan currently foresees a global supply and demand imbalance of 1.1 million bpd in 2025, with this deficit expanding to 7.1 million bpd by 2030 due to robust demand outpacing limited supply.
Analysis: JPMorgan’s warning of a potential $150 per barrel Brent crude price by 2026 highlights the complex interplay of factors influencing global energy markets. It underscores the importance of ongoing efforts to address supply-demand imbalances and transition to more sustainable energy sources.
