According to JPMorgan, the impact of the coronavirus is set to push the world’s poorer countries excluding China into recession by the middle of the year.
“We now expect a 1H20 recession in emerging markets ex-China as containment is stepped up and as developed markets contract,” the bank said.
The company believes the impact will be felt more in Latin America (-12%) and Europe, Middle East and Africa (-13%). This is expected to be the biggest single-quarter declines in these regions since 2008-09. In Latin America, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico are expected to suffer the largest GDP downturn for the year as a whole, all close to 3%-pts on 4Q/4Q basis
Turkey’s 17.2% and Mexico’s 15.5% q/q annualized growth collapse is likely to be the largest in emerging markets in the second quarter with central and eastern European economies not far behind.