According to Capital ltd Capital analysis, which highlights long-term wealth creation, foreign-exchange risk and the potential advantage of dollar dividends from the refinery IPO
An investor who placed ₦1 million each in Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar and NASCON at their market-entry reference prices would hold an estimated ₦78.22 million in shares and accumulated gross dividends today, according to Capital ltd, Capital Investment Insights. The original ₦3 million portfolio is estimated at ₦68.23 million in shares and ₦9.98 million in dividends.
“The aggregate ₦3.00 million investment would now represent approximately ₦68.23 million in listed shares and ₦9.98 million in gross cash dividends,” CII Capital said. Dangote Cement accounts for about ₦9.27 million, Dangote Sugar ₦5.85 million, and NASCON ₦63.10 million, including dividends.
Capital ltd used Dangote Cement’s ₦135 listing price and Dangote Sugar’s ₦18 IPO price. For NASCON, it used the documented 1996 public-offer price of ₦3.50 because a reliable 1992 retail price was unavailable. The NASCON result is therefore indicative, not an exact IPO-to-date return.
The figures demonstrate the long-term wealth potential of Nigerian equities, but they also expose the impact of naira depreciation. Dangote Cement and Dangote Sugar produced strong nominal gains, yet weaker dollar-adjusted share-price results. This explains the appeal of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals IPO’s proposed dollar-dividend structure.
The refinery is offering 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 each and seeks about ₦2.15 trillion. Aliko Dangote has said shareholders will receive dividends in dollars, potentially allowing investors to subscribe in naira while earning income linked to the refinery’s export revenues. Dollar payouts could partially protect investors’ international purchasing power, although dividends remain subject to profit, cash requirements, board approval and regulation.
The IPO also arrives as FTSE Russell prepares to restore Nigeria to Frontier Market status on September 21, 2026. The reclassification could improve Nigeria’s visibility to foreign portfolio investors and benchmark-tracking funds. However, inflows are not automatic; liquidity, free float, foreign-exchange access and company-level index eligibility will remain important. Nigeria also remains a standalone market under MSCI.