Intra-African trade is projected to reach $230 billion by 2026, driven largely by the accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), according to a new report by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). The report also forecasts a 10 percent increase in overall continental trade this year, highlighting growing economic momentum across the region.
The report, titled African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026, notes that African economies have demonstrated notable resilience despite ongoing global geopolitical tensions. It revealed that the continent’s economic output grew by 4.2 percent in 2025, an improvement from 3.4 percent in 2024, supported by strong domestic demand, improved export performance, expansion in the services sector, and renewed infrastructure investments.
However, the report cautions that Africa’s economic landscape remains fragile due to its heavy reliance on commodities, leaving it exposed to global price fluctuations. In 2025, the continent’s total trade reached $1.4 trillion, with intra-African trade accounting for about 18 percent, a figure steadily rising as AfCFTA implementation deepens.
Looking ahead, Africa’s GDP growth is expected to increase slightly to 4.3 percent in 2026 and further to 4.4 percent in the medium term. This growth is anticipated to be driven by increased global demand for African exports, easing inflation, and ongoing structural reforms aimed at diversifying economies. Notably, non-resource-dependent economies are projected to grow significantly faster, averaging about 7.5 percent in 2026.
Speaking on the outlook, Afreximbank’s Chief Economist, Yemi Kale, described AfCFTA as more than just a trade agreement, calling it a critical tool for economic stability in a rapidly changing global landscape. He emphasized the importance of strengthening trade finance, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, noting that closing financing gaps will be key to boosting industrialisation, creating jobs, and unlocking Africa’s full trade potential.
source: business day