Ghana’s Economic Recovery Shows Promise but Risks Remain, S&P Maintains Stable Outlook

Ghana’s economy is showing signs of recovery, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings, which affirmed the country’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook. The ratings agency highlighted that stronger economic growth, rising exports—especially from gold—and improved foreign currency reserves have helped stabilize Ghana’s external position. Recent fiscal reforms and tighter expenditure controls are also expected to keep budget deficits more contained than during the pre-2022 debt crisis period.

Despite these positive trends, S&P warned that Ghana remains exposed to global economic shocks. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, for example, could increase fuel and transportation costs, driving inflation higher and potentially raising government borrowing costs. Such developments could also affect investor confidence, posing a risk to the country’s fragile economic recovery.

Ghana’s current account has strengthened significantly, driven by favorable commodity prices and robust export earnings. The country recorded a surplus exceeding $9 billion in 2025, while gross foreign reserves reached record levels. However, S&P cautioned that a decline in global prices for key exports, including gold, cocoa, and oil, could quickly undermine this improved position, leaving the economy vulnerable to external pressures.

Progress in Ghana’s debt restructuring programme has been notable, with agreements reached or completed on nearly all targeted debt. This has eased immediate financing pressures and contributed to macroeconomic stability. Nonetheless, the agency flagged ongoing challenges, including high debt servicing costs and structural weaknesses in public financial management. These issues could threaten fiscal discipline, particularly during election periods.

Looking ahead, S&P suggested that Ghana’s credit rating could be upgraded if fiscal discipline is maintained, debt servicing burdens are reduced, and external buffers are strengthened. Conversely, any slowdown in reforms, renewed fiscal slippage, or setbacks in the debt restructuring process could exert downward pressure on the rating. For now, while Ghana’s economic recovery is promising, persistent risks highlight the need for careful financial management.

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