Nigeria’s Oil Output Drops to 1.48mbpd in February, Raising Doubts Over 2.5mbpd Target
Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production dropped to 1.48 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February 2026, down sharply from 1.62mbpd in January, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This marks one of the lowest production months in recent years, highlighting persistent challenges in the sector.
The report revealed that crude oil alone slid to 1.313mbpd—about 88% of Nigeria’s 1.5mbpd OPEC quota—while condensate output rose slightly to 170,259 barrels per day from January’s 116,373bpd. Despite this increase in condensate, the gain was not enough to offset the decline in crude production, leaving analysts concerned about meeting the country’s ambitious 2.5mbpd target by the end of 2026.
Experts attribute the slump to a combination of infrastructure challenges, unscheduled maintenance in the Niger Delta, underinvestment, and lingering theft issues. February’s output drop from January’s near-98% quota compliance underlines the volatility of Nigeria’s oil sector and the risks it poses to government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, given that oil contributes roughly 90% of exports and 70% of government revenue.
While initiatives like NUPRC’s “Project One Million Barrels” temporarily boosted output to 1.7–1.83mbpd in late 2025, early 2026 data shows reversals, exposing inefficiencies in crude blending and terminal operations. Analysts warn that if production does not stabilise, Nigeria could face widened fiscal deficits in a year when energy reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 are critical for economic growth.
Nigeria’s oil reserves, currently at 37.28 billion barrels with gas reserves of 210 trillion cubic feet, offer long-term potential. However, structural and operational hurdles continue to hinder sustainable expansion. With global energy demand shifting and production targets looming, industry stakeholders stress the need for urgent investment, infrastructure upgrades, and policy consistency to achieve the 2.5mbpd goal.
source: leadership