Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Drops to 1.31 Million BPD, Falling Short of OPEC Quota
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell sharply to 1.31 million barrels per day (bpd) in February 2026, according to the latest data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This represents a 10.69% decline from the 1.45 million bpd recorded in January, signaling ongoing operational difficulties in Africa’s leading oil-producing nation.
The drop comes amid persistent infrastructural and security challenges, particularly in the Niger Delta, as well as maintenance shutdowns at key oil fields. OPEC’s report, which relies on direct communication with Nigerian authorities, confirms that the country missed its February quota of 1.5 million bpd by roughly 190,000 barrels, highlighting the struggles to meet production targets.
Despite the shortfall, Nigeria maintained its status as Africa’s top oil producer, surpassing Libya, which recorded 1.28 million bpd. Secondary sources reported slightly higher production at 1.46 million bpd, down marginally from January. The discrepancy reflects ongoing reporting challenges, but the overall trend underscores persistent volatility in Nigeria’s oil sector.
External factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have further complicated production dynamics. Conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel briefly in March. Combined with Nigeria’s internal operational issues, these developments have created market volatility, affecting both revenue and investment decisions in the country.
Analysts warn that continued shortfalls could significantly impact government revenue, as each 100,000 bpd deficit may cost billions of Naira monthly. While the federal government has set a conservative 1.8 million bpd benchmark for budgeting, improving infrastructure, security, and operational efficiency remains critical. Nigeria’s performance in the coming months will determine its ability to capitalize on high global oil prices while fulfilling OPEC commitments.
source: nairametrics