Nigeria’s oil sector suffered a staggering N1.76 trillion loss in potential revenue after failing to meet the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota from January 2025 to January 2026. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country fell short of its 1.5 million barrels per day target in nine months of 2025 and again in January 2026, even as global crude prices remained moderately strong.
Data shows Nigeria slightly exceeded the OPEC quota in January, June, and July of 2025, but production dipped below the benchmark in February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November, and December. The shortfalls ranged from 10,000 barrels per day in April to a record 110,000 barrels per day in September. Cumulatively, these deficits left the country with a net production shortfall of 16.85 million barrels for the year.
The financial impact of these shortfalls was significant. Using the average Bonny Light crude price of $72.08 per barrel during the period, analysts estimated Nigeria forfeited roughly $1.31 billion (around N1.76tn at the prevailing exchange rate). While total oil production for 2025 reached 530.41 million barrels, generating about N55.5tn, the missed quota highlights structural challenges such as operational disruptions, security concerns in the Niger Delta, and fluctuating production efficiency across oil fields.
Energy experts warn that the issue lies less in crude oil prices and more in production capacity. Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare stressed that the government must prioritize security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and ensure stable conditions for existing fields. He also called on the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to reopen shut-in wells to boost near-term production. Similarly, Professor Segun Ajibola noted that factors like joint venture cooperation, global oil market conditions, and environmental challenges play crucial roles in meeting production targets.
Looking ahead, Nigeria aims to increase crude output to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels by 2030. The NUPRC’s new chief, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, outlined a vision for production optimization, regulatory predictability, and sustainable operations aligned with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda. While marginal improvements were recorded in early 2026, Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy must overcome systemic production challenges to meet its OPEC commitments and secure vital revenue.
source: punch