Nigeria Underperforms OPEC Oil Quota for Sixth Straight Month Despite January Output Increase
Nigeria has once again fallen short of its crude oil production target set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extending its streak of underperformance to six consecutive months. Data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report shows that Nigeria produced 1.459 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January 2026 — below its allocated quota of 1.5 mbpd. While the figures reflect a modest improvement from December’s 1.422 mbpd, the country remains unable to consistently meet its production ceiling.
The January increase of about 38,000 barrels per day offered a glimmer of hope after December’s dip of 14,000 barrels per day. However, the rebound was not enough to close the gap. According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, production had already declined in late 2025 despite repeated government assurances of a ramp-up strategy. From November’s 1.436 mbpd, output slipped further in December instead of climbing toward the OPEC benchmark.
A broader look at 2025 paints a concerning picture. Nigeria missed its OPEC quota in nine out of twelve months, exceeding or meeting the target only in January, June, and July. The year began strongly, with production at 1.54 mbpd in January — roughly 38,700 barrels per day above allocation. But output dropped to 1.47 mbpd in February and weakened further to 1.40 mbpd in March, marking one of the year’s sharpest shortfalls before a brief mid-year recovery.
Industry analysts say the stakes are high. Oil remains Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Although there were modest improvements in April and May, consistent underperformance affects fiscal stability, investor confidence, and national budget projections. Expectations are now tied to increased domestic refining capacity, especially after the Dangote Refinery announced it had reached full operational capacity of 650,000 barrels per day — a development many hope will strengthen the broader oil value chain.
Looking ahead, the newly appointed Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged reforms centered on production optimisation, regulatory efficiency, and sustainable operations. Her vision aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which aims to increase Nigeria’s crude oil output to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030. For many Nigerians, the question remains whether policy shifts and operational reforms can finally translate into sustained production growth in the months ahead.
source: punch