Nigeria’s Net Forex Inflow Drops 18.3% to $48.1bn in 9 Months Amid Weaker IMTO Remittances
Net foreign exchange inflow into Nigeria fell sharply by 18.3% year-on-year (YoY) to $48.1 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, down from $58.8 billion in the same period of 2024. Analysts attribute the decline to a steeper drop in forex inflows, which outpaced the reduction in outflows, highlighting persistent pressures on the country’s external reserves.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data shows that total forex inflows into the economy declined to $83.71 billion in the nine-month period from $99.44 billion in 2024, while outflows fell to $35.65 billion from $40.61 billion. Inflows via the CBN dropped sharply by 30% YoY to $28.72 billion, whereas autonomous inflows, which include private sector contributions, saw a milder decline of 6.8% to $54.99 billion.
IMTO (International Money Transfer Operator) inflows, a key component of autonomous supply, also weakened, falling 15.7% YoY to $3.22 billion. The drop reflects challenges in diaspora remittances, with declines observed across all three quarters of 2025. In Q3 alone, IMTO inflows fell 22% YoY to $1.15 billion, despite government efforts to attract funds through formal channels.
On the outflow side, CBN-related forex outflows fell by 18.8% YoY to $25.68 billion, while autonomous outflows rose 18% to $9.97 billion. This contributed to a steep 62% YoY drop in net forex flow through the CBN to $3.04 billion. Net autonomous flows also fell 11.5% YoY to $45.02 billion, underlining the overall moderation in net forex movement.
A bright spot emerged in Q3 2025, as net forex inflow rebounded 20% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to $17.46 billion, compared with $14.46 billion in Q2. The increase was driven by lower outflows through the CBN, providing mild relief amid the nine-month decline. Analysts suggest that sustained improvements in IMTO inflows and broader economic policies could be critical to stabilizing forex inflows for the rest of 2025.
source: vanguard