Nigeria Earns ₦55.5 Trillion from Crude Oil Sales in 2025 Despite Production Shortfalls

Nigeria generated an estimated ₦55.5 trillion in crude oil revenue in 2025, driven largely by global oil prices despite struggling to meet production targets. An analysis of official figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and crude price data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that earnings rose from ₦50.88 trillion in 2024, highlighting oil’s continued dominance in the country’s revenue mix.

According to NUPRC data, Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025, with output fluctuating throughout the year due to outages, security challenges, and operational disruptions. Production opened strongly in January but weakened significantly in the third quarter before recording a modest recovery towards year-end. Despite these challenges, crude prices helped cushion revenue, with Bonny Light averaging $72.08 per barrel for the year.

Applying this average price to total output places Nigeria’s gross crude oil revenue at about $38.23 billion, which translates to ₦55.5 trillion at an exchange rate of ₦1,450 to the dollar. Industry experts, however, caution that this figure represents gross earnings, not actual government receipts, as it excludes costs such as production expenses, joint venture obligations, oil theft, and domestic supply commitments.

Nigeria’s output remained below its OPEC quota for nine months in 2025, producing an average of 1.42 million barrels per day in December, compared with the 1.5 million bpd target. The country also fell short of its 2025 budget projection of 2.1 million bpd, missing its annual production target by more than 166 million barrels, underscoring persistent structural and security constraints in the oil sector.

Economists and energy experts say Nigeria’s oil performance reflects deeper challenges, including insecurity in host communities, pipeline vandalism, high production costs, and policy uncertainty. While recent investment commitments and reforms offer hope, analysts stress that improving governance, security, and fiscal incentives will be critical if Nigeria is to boost production, meet future targets, and reduce its vulnerability to oil price swings.

source: punch