Petrol Imports Still Dominate Nigeria’s Fuel Market Despite Rising Domestic Refining in 2025
In 2025, petrol imports continued to dominate Nigeria’s fuel market, accounting for 62.47% of total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption, according to the latest midstream and downstream sector report from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). While domestic refineries, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, ramped up production, nearly two-thirds of the nation’s fuel demand was still met through imports, highlighting the persistent reliance on foreign supply. Total national petrol consumption was recorded at 18.97 billion litres, with imports supplying 11.85 billion litres.
Domestic refineries contributed approximately 7.54 billion litres in 2025, representing 37.53% of national consumption. The Dangote refinery, currently Nigeria’s largest, delivered between 17 million and 32 million litres per day depending on the month. Despite improved production, this output fell slightly short of its annual target, reflecting challenges such as crude supply arrangements, logistics constraints, and fluctuations in domestic demand following full petrol price deregulation.
Monthly consumption data shows wide variations throughout 2025. For instance, demand rose from 1.60 billion litres in January to a peak of 1.97 billion litres in December. Petrol imports tracked these fluctuations, remaining the primary source of supply for most months. However, domestic output showed a steady upward trend, with December marking the highest monthly contribution from local refineries at nearly 50% of daily consumption, signaling a gradual stabilization of local supply.
Energy experts caution against overstating Nigeria’s domestic refining achievements. While Dangote and other refineries have significantly increased output, importation remains a crucial risk-management tool to ensure fuel availability during surges in demand, logistics disruptions, or operational setbacks. According to Professor Wumi Iledare, the downstream market’s structure is anchored in the credible threat of imports, and domestic refining alone cannot dictate national fuel supply outcomes.
Despite these caveats, the growth in local refining represents a major milestone for Nigeria’s energy sector. Analysts like Jeremiah Olatide of petroleumprice.ng note that domestic refining capacity rose from under 5% in 2022 to around 40% in 2025. Experts argue that achieving at least 70% domestic supply could significantly stabilize the economy, reduce foreign exchange dependence, and create jobs. The data and ongoing policy shifts suggest that Nigeria is on a steady path toward reduced import dependence, even as imports continue to fill the gaps in the market.
source: punch