The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 upward to 4.4%, reflecting growing confidence in the country’s medium-term recovery. This marks a slight improvement from the 4.2% projection issued in October 2025, according to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook update, released on Monday.
The Fund said the adjustment signals optimism that Nigeria’s ongoing reforms and efforts to stabilise its macroeconomic environment are beginning to yield results. While the IMF left its near-term outlook largely unchanged, the upward revision suggests stronger expectations beyond the immediate horizon, positioning Nigeria within a broader recovery trend across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Regionally, the IMF upgraded Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth forecast to 4.1% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, up slightly from earlier estimates. South Africa also saw marginal improvements, with growth projected at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, reinforcing the view that Nigeria’s improved outlook is part of a wider, gradual strengthening across the region rather than an isolated development.
Nigeria’s revised forecast follows a period of economic adjustment marked by policy reforms aimed at tackling inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural bottlenecks. Since late 2025, authorities have focused on strengthening fiscal coordination, restoring macroeconomic balance, and boosting productivity. The IMF has consistently stressed that such structural reforms are essential for sustainable growth, and the latest revision suggests increasing confidence in their medium-term payoff.
For Nigeria, the higher growth outlook carries meaningful implications. It could bolster investor confidence, support revenue mobilisation, and ease pressure on public finances. For households, sustained expansion remains critical to improving jobs and easing cost-of-living pressures. Overall, the IMF’s forecast reflects cautious confidence that Nigeria is on a firmer recovery path, even as near-term risks and global uncertainties persist.
source: nairametrics