Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November, according to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). This marks the fifth consecutive month that Africa’s largest oil producer has fallen short of its OPEC-assigned production quota, highlighting ongoing challenges in the country’s upstream oil sector.
Despite ongoing reforms aimed at boosting output, Nigeria’s oil production has struggled to meet targets. Quarterly data for 2025 reveal a steady decline: Q1 averaged 1.468 million bpd, Q2 at 1.481 million bpd, Q3 at 1.444 million bpd, and Q4 at 1.42 million bpd. Experts point to structural and operational constraints as key factors limiting the country’s production capacity, even as global oil prices remain favorable.
OPEC gathers production data from member countries and secondary sources, including independent energy intelligence agencies. While direct reports show Nigeria’s December output declined, secondary estimates suggest a slightly higher figure of 1.5 million bpd, representing a 1.35% increase from November. Regardless of the method, Nigeria remains Africa’s top oil producer, ahead of Libya, which produced 1.37 million bpd.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s main source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Missing OPEC quotas limits the country’s ability to capitalize fully on global oil price gains, especially amid ongoing fiscal pressures and foreign exchange shortages. The production gap also raises concerns about Nigeria’s capacity to ramp up output even as OPEC slowly relaxes supply restrictions.
When condensate production is included, Nigeria’s total output looks stronger. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), combined crude and condensate production averaged 1.64 million bpd for the first 11 months of 2025. Condensates are excluded from OPEC quotas, which explains the difference between domestic reports and OPEC data, providing a slightly more optimistic view of the country’s production performance.
source: Nairametrics