World Bank Raises Nigeria Growth Forecast to 4.4%, Signalling Strongest Economic Expansion in a Decade
The World Bank has upgraded its outlook for Nigeria’s economy, projecting growth of 4.4 percent in 2026, a sharp increase from its earlier estimate of 3.7 percent. The revised forecast places Africa’s largest economy on track for its strongest growth performance in more than ten years, reflecting improving fundamentals and resilience in key sectors.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender also raised Nigeria’s 2027 growth projection to 4.4 per cent, up from 3.8 per cent. It further estimated that the economy likely expanded by 4.2 per cent in 2025, significantly higher than its previous 3.6 per cent forecast, underscoring momentum that exceeded earlier expectations.
According to the World Bank, the stronger outlook is being driven largely by robust performance in the services sector, a modest rebound in agriculture, and Nigeria’s transition into a net exporter of refined petroleum products. While crude oil remains central to government revenues, recent growth has increasingly been powered by finance, information and communication technology, and other service-based industries — a sign of gradual economic diversification.
The Bank noted that ongoing fiscal and tax reforms, alongside tight monetary policy, are helping to improve investor confidence and curb inflationary pressures. Higher crude oil output is also expected to cushion the impact of softer global oil prices, strengthening public finances and supporting Nigeria’s external balance in the medium term.
However, the lender cautioned that sustaining this growth trajectory will require addressing long-standing structural challenges, including weak fiscal discipline and limited institutional capacity. These weaknesses, it warned, have historically constrained Nigeria’s ability to manage oil revenue volatility. Globally, while growth prospects have improved, the World Bank stressed that persistent poverty risks and rising public debt across developing economies make fiscal credibility and productivity-driven reforms more urgent than ever.
source: Buiness day