Statistics Bureau Reviews Inflation Data Standards Amid 31% December Spike Forecast
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced a revision in its inflation calculation method, ahead of December’s consumer price index (CPI) release. Officials warned that last year’s CPI rebasing could create an artificial spike in headline inflation, projecting a rise from November’s 14.45% to as high as 31% year-on-year. Analysts caution that while the number appears alarming, it does not necessarily reflect actual market conditions.
Ayo Anthony, head of prices at the NBS, emphasized that the widely reported 30% figure is only a projection, not an official statistic. “Consumer inflation peaked near 35% in December 2024 before falling sharply after the statistics office revised its base year and as food prices eased. This spike is not the real inflation rate; it is an artificial spike caused by the base effect from rebasing,” he explained. To correct this, the NBS is switching from a single-month index reference to a 12-month period for 2024, aiming for more accurate reporting.
The bureau highlighted that Nigeria’s inflation environment differs from other African nations like Kenya and South Africa, where a one-month reference is commonly used. Bonaventure Nwosu, NBS head of communications, said, “Whatever spike you see for December is a one-off and should not be interpreted as real inflation. From January 2026, figures will normalize and reflect actual market conditions.” The bureau expects this methodological adjustment to improve clarity on inflationary pressures in Africa’s most populous nation.
Financial analysts predict December inflation could reach between 30% and 33%, driven largely by the effects of the rebasing. Food prices and core inflation are expected to contribute significantly, with food inflation projected to jump to 31.7% year-on-year from 11.1% in November, while core inflation could rise to 34.5% from 18%. The spike follows a period of disinflation from April to November 2025, when the headline rate steadily fell from 24.2% to 14.5%.
Experts say the rebasing of December 2024 materially altered the CPI structure, reducing the weights of food and energy while increasing the share of core, less-volatile items. This adjustment partly explains the disinflation trend in 2025 despite persistent price pressures in major staples. Analysts estimate Nigeria’s average headline inflation for 2025 at 22.1%, though it is expected to moderate to around 15.4% in 2026, supported by exchange rate stability and the statistical realignment.
source: Leadership