Nigeria’s Debt Service Set to Surpass N91 Trillion by 2028 Under Tinubu Administration

Nigeria’s federal government, under President Bola Tinubu, is on track to spend over N91 trillion on debt service between 2023 and 2028, according to budget projections and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). This rising financial obligation underscores the growing cost of public borrowing amid persistent revenue shortfalls and mounting fiscal pressures.

Recent data shows that debt service has consistently exceeded budgeted targets. In 2023, the government planned to spend N6.56 trillion but ended up paying N8.56 trillion, overshooting by nearly N2 trillion. The situation worsened in 2024, with actual debt payments of N12.63 trillion far surpassing the budgeted N8.27 trillion. Early 2025 figures indicate a similar trajectory, with N9.8 trillion spent in just seven months against a pro-rated target of N8.35 trillion.

This surge in debt payments has squeezed capital expenditure, limiting funds for infrastructure, healthcare, and other development projects. In 2023, capital spending reached only N6.3 trillion, below the N8.56 trillion allocated for debt service. By 2024, the gap widened to N11.5 trillion, and early 2025 data suggests that capital projects continue to bear the brunt of growing debt obligations.

The government’s revenue challenges have further compounded the problem. While revenues slightly exceeded expectations in 2023, they fell short by nearly N5 trillion in 2024, forcing additional borrowing. In 2025, pro-rated revenue is lagging far behind budget targets, signaling a widening debt-to-revenue gap that could further strain Nigeria’s fiscal position.

Rising domestic and external debts, coupled with high interest rates, have intensified the cost of borrowing. Domestic debt climbed from N54.3 trillion in 2022 to N80.5 trillion, while external debt rose from $41.6 billion to $46.9 billion. With borrowing rates exceeding 20%, debt service is consuming an ever-larger share of government resources, leaving limited room for essential capital investments. Without significant revenue reforms or lower borrowing costs, debt service is likely to remain the largest claim on Nigeria’s public finances throughout the Tinubu administration.

source: nairametrics