NBS Engages Stakeholders Ahead of December Inflation Report as Temporary Price Spike Looms
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to engage key stakeholders ahead of the release of Nigeria’s December inflation data, as analysts project a possible temporary halt in the country’s recent disinflationary trend. The meeting, scheduled for Monday, comes amid heightened anticipation surrounding the inflation figures, which are expected to reflect year-end spending pressures and diminishing base-year effects.
Several financial institutions have forecast a short-lived increase in headline inflation for December. CardinalStone projected inflation at 32.07 per cent, while Coronation Asset Management warned of a sharp year-end rise, largely attributed to statistical base effects. Coronation noted that festive-season demand, increased transport activity, higher logistics costs, and persistent food price pressures driven by supply constraints and insecurity would likely push prices higher on a month-on-month basis.
AIICO Capital echoed similar expectations, estimating that headline inflation would fall within a 31.4–32.4 per cent range year-on-year in December. The firm attributed this outlook to the combined impact of base-year effects and festive consumption. However, it added that some easing pressures could emerge from naira appreciation at the official foreign exchange window and a notable drop in petrol prices following price cuts by Dangote Refinery.
Despite the projected spike, analysts stress that the rise does not signal worsening economic fundamentals. According to AIICO Capital, lower fuel costs and currency gains could help moderate month-on-month inflation, even as annual figures rise due to technical factors. This distinction has become increasingly important for investors and policymakers seeking clarity on Nigeria’s inflation trajectory.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has called for transparency and proactive communication, warning that misunderstandings around December’s inflation data could erode confidence in official statistics. The group noted that following the 2025 rebasing of the Consumer Price Index—updated to reflect a 2024 price reference year—headline inflation moderated to 14 per cent in November. It emphasized that the anticipated December spike would largely reflect computational effects rather than structural economic deterioration, underscoring the importance of stakeholder engagement ahead of the data release.