CBN Projects Petrol Price at N950/Litre in 2026 Amid FX Stability and Refining Gains

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that petrol pump prices will hover around N950 per litre in 2026, according to its newly released 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria. The apex bank said the forecast reflects expectations around crude oil prices, exchange rate stability and improving domestic refining capacity, even as fuel prices remain higher than current levels at many filling stations.

The projection is based on baseline assumptions that crude oil will average $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, alongside an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar next year. The CBN noted that a more efficient foreign exchange market, stronger capital inflows, a current account surplus and broader economic activity would help support the naira and moderate energy costs.

According to the outlook, domestic crude oil production is expected to average 1.5 million barrels per day, excluding condensates, throughout the forecast period. On this basis, the CBN expects Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices to settle around N950 per litre in 2026, despite recent price cuts triggered by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. In December, Dangote reduced gantry prices, forcing retail pump prices down to about N739 per litre at MRS Oil stations and prompting wider market adjustments.

However, the refinery has warned that petrol prices could surge to as high as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria becomes fully dependent on fuel imports. Dangote Refinery stressed that large-scale local refining has become a critical stabilising force in the downstream petroleum market, helping to cushion consumers from extreme price volatility in a post-subsidy environment.

Looking ahead, the CBN expressed optimism that increased private-sector investment—particularly in domestic refining—will support economic growth in 2026. It also projected that inflation will ease to 12.94 per cent next year, driven by moderating food and petrol prices, increased competition in the midstream oil sector, and declining global energy prices expected to fall by nearly 7 per cent in 2026.

source: Punch