Naira Outlook 2026: Experts Say Rising FX Inflows Could Drive Stronger Currency Gains
Economic analysts and Bureau De Change (BDC) operators say Nigeria’s naira is well positioned for stronger gains and improved stability in 2026, driven by rising foreign exchange (FX) inflows and sustained policy reforms. They point to tighter monetary policy, improved FX transparency, and structural changes in the economy as factors reshaping demand and supply dynamics in the currency market.
According to market operators who spoke with Nairametrics, confidence is gradually returning to Nigeria’s FX market following reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). These include the unification of exchange rate windows, stricter oversight of FX dealers, and greater transparency in FX allocation. BDC operators say the reforms have narrowed the gap between official and parallel market rates, reducing arbitrage opportunities and discouraging speculative dollar hoarding.
Analysts also expect FX inflows to strengthen in 2026, supported by higher crude oil production, improved security around oil infrastructure, and tougher enforcement against oil theft. Beyond oil, diaspora remittances and non-oil exports are increasingly playing a stabilising role, as more market-reflective exchange rates encourage inflows through formal channels. Experts say these trends are helping rebuild Nigeria’s external buffers and reduce pressure on the naira.
However, economists caution that risks remain, particularly around pre-election spending. Abuja-based economist Baba Ahmed warned that unchecked fiscal expansion tied to political campaigns could weaken the currency if not carefully managed. Still, FX operators note that easing import dependence—driven by growth in local refining, agriculture, and manufacturing—could help offset some of these pressures by lowering demand for foreign exchange.
Offering a largely positive outlook, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said Nigeria’s strong external reserves and sustained FX reforms reduce the risk of major exchange rate shocks in 2026. He projected that the naira could trade within the N1,400–N1,500 per dollar range for much of the year, barring a sharp drop in oil prices or a reversal of current policies. Other forecasts, including CardinalStone’s outlook, suggest the naira could even strengthen further if reforms and inflows are sustained.
Source: nairametrics