The global oil market is feeling the ripple effects of Venezuela’s ongoing political and economic instability, with crude oil prices slipping to $61 per barrel, down from over $62 earlier this week. Analysts warn that continued uncertainty in the country, which holds roughly 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—about 17% of the world’s total—could push prices even lower.
Recent checks by Vanguard suggest that oil could dip below $60 per barrel if tensions between the United States and Venezuela persist. Investors and traders are closely watching the situation, concerned that Venezuela’s unrest could disrupt supply chains and trigger volatility in global energy markets.
OPEC+ has so far kept its production plans steady, with eight member countries meeting on January 4, 2026, to reaffirm their decision to pause production increases for February and March. This move is largely due to seasonal factors and not an immediate response to Venezuela’s challenges, signaling caution rather than alarm.
Petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare emphasized that OPEC+’s stance is designed to maintain flexibility and market stability. “The 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary cuts can be returned gradually, in part or in full, depending on how the market evolves,” he said. “Market fundamentals remain supportive, with low inventories and a steady global economic outlook suggesting a broadly balanced oil market.”
OPEC confirmed that the participating countries intend to fully compensate for any overproduced volumes since January 2024, underlining their commitment to stabilizing the market despite uncertainty in Venezuela. For now, the global oil industry remains watchful, balancing geopolitical risks against long-term supply strategies.
source: vanguard