Nigeria’s Current Account Surplus Set to Reach $18.81 Billion in 2026 – CBN Forecast
Nigeria’s current account balance is set to strengthen significantly in 2026, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projecting a surplus of $18.81 billion, equivalent to 11.16% of GDP. This marks an increase from the estimated $16.94 billion surplus, or 10.94% of GDP, recorded in 2025, signaling continued recovery in the nation’s external accounts. The CBN outlined these projections in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
The report highlights that the improvement in the current account will largely be driven by stronger export receipts and higher transfers. Exports of both oil and non-oil products are expected to rise, with oil earnings benefiting from increased domestic crude production and improved security at oil installations. Non-oil exports, particularly agricultural commodities and fertilizers, are also projected to grow, supported by government initiatives such as the National Export Trading Company and the National Intellectual Property Policy.
Despite these gains, Nigeria’s import bill is also expected to rise, reaching $43.27 billion in 2026 from $39.92 billion in 2025. The services account deficit is projected to widen to $13.68 billion due to higher payments for transport, business, and research services, while the primary income account is set to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion as attractive domestic yields continue to draw foreign portfolio investment, increasing interest and dividend outflows.
The secondary income account, however, is expected to post a $26.13 billion surplus, up from $23.82 billion in 2025, reflecting robust diaspora remittances and transfers. Some of these inflows are also anticipated to support domestic election-related activities. Overall, the outlook underscores the combined impact of oil-sector reforms, export diversification, and strong remittances in boosting the country’s external position.
Nevertheless, the report cautions that structural challenges persist, including rising import dependence, widening services deficits, and growing income outflows to foreign investors. Recent data shows that Nigeria posted a $3.42 billion current account surplus in Q3 2025, down from $5.81 billion in Q2, while foreign direct investment surged 700% quarter-on-quarter to $720 million, highlighting both the opportunities and vulnerabilities in the nation’s external accounts.
source: nairametrics