Nigeria Inflation Expectations: Businesses and Households Predict Stability in Coming Months

Businesses and households across Nigeria are anticipating stable inflation in the coming months, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Inflation Expectations Survey for November 2025. The survey highlights a decline in inflation concerns, with the Inflation Perception Index at 43.5 points and high-inflation perceptions dropping to 52.3% from 56.5% in October.

The survey revealed that inflation pressures vary across different business sizes. Micro businesses reported the highest perception of inflation at 54.6%, followed by large firms at 53.7%, medium firms at 49.3%, and small firms at 46.4%. This pattern indicates that smaller and informal businesses continue to face greater cost pressures compared to larger operators.

According to the CBN report, the decline in inflation perception was largely driven by business respondents, whose concerns fell from 55.4% in October to 50.3% in November. Key factors cited as drivers of inflation included energy costs, transportation, and exchange rate fluctuations, while other factors played a smaller role. Supporting this trend, Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 14.45% in November, down from 16.05% in October, with food inflation at 11.08%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Looking ahead, most businesses expect inflation to remain stable over the next month, three months, and six months. Households anticipate short-term stability but predict a potential rise over the next six months, reflecting lingering medium-term concerns. President Bola Tinubu recently reiterated the government’s goal to reduce inflation from 34.6% to 15% by the end of 2025, though several experts remain skeptical about achieving this target.

The CBN survey suggests a gradual easing of inflation worries, particularly among businesses. Stable prices, despite ongoing energy, transport, and exchange rate pressures, could support investment and consumption decisions, boosting Nigeria’s economic recovery. In line with this, the country’s private sector expanded further in November, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 56.4 from 55.4 in October, signaling broader economic growth.

source: nairametrics