Nigeria’s GDP Growth Projected at 4.1% in 2026 Driven by Non-Oil Sector Expansion
Nigeria’s economy is set to expand at a moderate pace in 2026, with GDP growth projected at 4.1 per cent, slightly higher than the 3.86 per cent forecast for 2025. Analysts at Cowry Asset Management Limited attribute this optimism to a mix of increased domestic oil production, ongoing policy reforms, and steady growth across key non-oil sectors.
The non-oil sector, which includes telecommunications, financial services, construction, trade, and agriculture, is expected to remain the primary engine of growth. Cowry notes that initiatives to boost agricultural output and continued expansion in services will provide stability amid global economic uncertainties, offering a critical buffer against external shocks.
Despite the positive outlook, Cowry highlights persistent structural challenges. High production costs, infrastructure gaps, fluctuating oil output, and tight liquidity conditions are likely to limit the pace of growth, underscoring the need for careful policy management and targeted interventions to sustain momentum.
Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s economy grew 3.98 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. The growth was supported by both oil and non-oil sectors, with non-oil industries accounting for over 96 per cent of GDP. While oil production remains volatile, rising domestic output and investments in upstream operations are contributing positively to the overall economic picture.
Looking ahead, Cowry emphasizes that a combination of strategic policy reforms, infrastructure investments, and continued diversification into non-oil industries will be crucial. With these measures, Nigeria is positioned to achieve a stable and cautiously optimistic growth path in 2026, strengthening resilience and inclusivity amid both domestic and global uncertainties.
source: The Guardian