Nigeria Q3 2025 GDP Outlook: Analysts Split Between 3.9% Slowdown and 4.5% Growth
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the third quarter of 2025 is stirring debate among economists, with forecasts ranging from a modest 3.6%–3.9% growth to a more robust 4.5% expansion. This follows the 4.23% growth recorded in Q2, highlighting uncertainty over how various sectors of the economy are performing. Analysts are closely watching how non-oil activity, inflation, oil output, and policy measures will shape the final numbers.
Some experts, including Jessica Ifada, Equities Trader and Business Strategist at Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, expect a slight moderation in growth to around 3.8%–3.9%. She cites a strong base effect from Q2, persistent inflation pressures, and the continued weakness of the oil sector, which accounts for only about 4% of GDP. Despite this, Ifada notes that the non-oil economy—covering trade, agriculture, telecommunications, and financial services—remains the main driver of growth.
Damilare Asimiyu, Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, aligns with the more cautious view, forecasting GDP growth of 3.6%–3.9%. He expects agriculture to expand between 2.2% and 2.7% due to harvest season effects, while industrial growth of 3.7%–4.1% is supported by increased refining activity at the Dangote facility and stronger performance in food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing. However, he warns that the services sector may slow slightly due to weaker financial earnings and reduced loan expansion.
On the other hand, Samuel Oyekanmi, Research and Insights Lead at Norrenberger Financial Group, offers a more optimistic outlook, projecting a 4.5% GDP growth. He points to the Purchasing Managers’ Index, which averaged 52.8 in Q3, indicating stronger manufacturing and service sector activity. According to Oyekanmi, improved business confidence and better operating conditions have contributed to continued economic traction across major sectors.
Overall, Nigeria’s Q3 2025 GDP outlook presents a mixed picture: strong non-oil activity in agriculture, trade, ICT, and refining keeps the economy on a growth path, while persistent challenges in the oil sector and slower financial sector growth may temper momentum. The forthcoming data will reveal whether Nigeria’s post-inflation recovery is broadening across sectors and how quickly policy measures like rate cuts and FX reforms are impacting real economic activity.
source: nairametrics