Nigeria’s Inflation Hits Three-Year Low at 16.05% Amid Persistent Cost-of-Living Challenges

Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 16.05% in October 2025, marking the lowest level in three years and eight months, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This represents a 1.96-percentage-point drop from September’s 18.02% and a sharp 17.82-percentage-point decline compared to October 2024. Analysts attributed the moderation largely to a new CPI base year and slightly lower food prices, signaling a slow but positive disinflationary trend.

Despite the headline improvement, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) warned that Nigerians are yet to feel meaningful relief in their daily lives. Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, highlighted that structural challenges in food supply, transportation, energy, and housing continue to strain households. “The sharp moderation is promising for macroeconomic stability, but its benefits are not yet reaching ordinary Nigerians,” he said.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) also echoed these concerns, stressing that inflation numbers do not reflect the realities in local markets. Dr. Femi Egbesola of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria noted that operating conditions remain harsh, forcing many businesses to shut down. Meanwhile, Eke Ubiji, DG of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, criticized the Central Bank’s inflation-targeting strategies as disconnected from market realities, pointing out soaring prices for staples like rice.

Economists cautioned that the apparent drop in inflation may reflect statistical adjustments rather than true relief for households. Professor Femi Saibu of the University of Lagos likened the CPI base-year shift to “standing on a table instead of the floor—your height doesn’t change.” He argued that rising month-on-month prices and persistent high costs for essentials show that the underlying cost-of-living pressure remains.

At the state level, inflation rates varied widely, with Ekiti, Nasarawa, and Zamfara recording the highest increases, while Bauchi, Anambra, and Gombe saw the slowest. Food inflation, which continues to drive household hardship, fell to 13.12% year-on-year, but monthly increases in key staples indicate ongoing price pressures. Experts called on the government to prioritize structural reforms across critical sectors to ensure that declining inflation translates into tangible relief for Nigerians.

source: punch