Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Drops to 1.39mbpd, Petrol Prices Surge Amid Supply Disruptions
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.39 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September 2025, marking the second consecutive month of decline, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The figure, down from 1.434mbpd in August, represents the lowest output in seven months and falls short of Nigeria’s OPEC allocation of 1.5mbpd, highlighting mounting challenges in the country’s oil sector.
Despite the production decline, fuel marketers have increased the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol. In Abuja, NNPC retail outlets raised prices from N905 to N955 per litre, while private stations mirrored the adjustment. The move comes as international oil prices hover below $65 per barrel, signaling that local factors rather than global market trends are driving domestic price hikes.
The drop in output has been linked to industrial unrest. A three-day strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) in September forced the shutdown of numerous production and export facilities, causing deferred crude liftings and projected revenue losses, according to a letter from NNPCL CEO Bayo Ojulari. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) noted that the total production in September, including crude and condensates, averaged 1.581mbpd, reflecting the operational impact of the strike.
Fuel supply constraints have triggered renewed concerns among consumers. Long queues returned to some petrol stations in Abuja, while black market vendors reemerged in various areas. MEMAN, the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, said the price adjustment reflects a “return to market realities” after weeks of suppressed pricing, cautioning that supply could become tighter in the coming weeks due to foreign exchange and logistics challenges.
Experts warn that the fuel price hike adds pressure to an already fragile economy. Prof. Wunmi Iledare, former president of the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, cited structural weaknesses, overreliance on imported fuel, and the lingering effects of subsidy removal and naira devaluation as factors behind price instability. Analysts predict that without reforms, petrol prices may remain elevated, further straining households already grappling with inflation and rising living costs.
source: Guardian