IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 3.9%, Projects 4.2% in 2026 Amid Economic Reforms
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast, projecting a 3.9% expansion in 2025 and a further acceleration to 4.2% in 2026. The announcement was made during the release of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 at the ongoing IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., signaling growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic recovery.
This marks a notable upward revision from the Fund’s July 2025 update, which had forecast a 3.4% growth for 2025. Analysts say the 0.5 percentage point increase reflects optimism about Nigeria’s reform-driven policies, including fiscal adjustments and measures to boost investor confidence, alongside improvements in oil production and domestic economic activity.
According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s upgraded forecast positions the country ahead of South Africa, whose growth is projected at 1.1% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, while remaining slightly below the broader Sub-Saharan African regional average of 4.1% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. The report highlighted domestic factors—higher oil output, rising investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance—as key drivers of Nigeria’s improved outlook.
Globally, the IMF expects growth to moderate to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly higher than its July 2025 WEO update but below pre-October 2024 projections. While advanced economies like the United States are projected to slow, emerging markets and developing economies, including Nigeria, are expected to maintain growth above 4%, buoyed by resilient domestic conditions despite ongoing global trade uncertainties and protectionist policies.
The IMF also praised Nigeria’s monetary policy, noting the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight stance as crucial for controlling inflation and ensuring macroeconomic stability. With global inflation forecasted to ease to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, Nigeria’s improving economic fundamentals offer a promising outlook for investors and businesses in the country.
source: nairametrics