Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Falls Below OPEC Quota in August, Reversing Gains from June and July

Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped below its OPEC quota in August 2025, reversing two months of gains that had briefly lifted the country above its target. According to fresh data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the nation pumped an average of 1.43 million barrels per day (mbpd) last month, a sharp drop from 1.507 mbpd in July. This decline leaves Nigeria about 66,000 barrels per day short of its 1.5 mbpd quota.

The latest figures mark a setback for the Tinubu administration, which had touted increased production in June and July as proof of a sectoral turnaround. Crude output had averaged 1.47 mbpd in the first quarter and 1.48 mbpd in the second quarter of 2025, with January recording the highest figure of 1.54 mbpd. Analysts say the August dip highlights the ongoing volatility and operational challenges of Nigeria’s oil sector despite recent efforts at recovery.

To boost production, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission launched the “Project One Million Barrels” initiative in 2024, aimed at reactivating dormant oil fields, accelerating approvals, and improving operational efficiency. Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe recently said oil output—including crude and condensates—had risen from 1.4 mbpd to 1.7 mbpd, with an ambitious goal of reaching 2 mbpd by year-end and 2.5 mbpd by 2026.

President Bola Tinubu’s appointment of a new Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) board in May was part of a broader strategy to raise production to two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels by 2030. The new leadership, chaired by Ahmadu Kida and led by Group CEO Bayo Ojulari, has also begun optimising refinery turnaround maintenance and increasing gas production targets to 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.

Industry watchers had hoped Nigeria’s June and July production surge signalled a lasting improvement, but the August slump underscores the fragility of those gains. While government officials remain confident of hitting higher production targets, experts caution that without sustained investment and operational discipline, Nigeria’s crude output may continue to fluctuate below OPEC quotas, undermining revenue projections and investor confidence.

source: punch