Nigeria Must Grow GDP by 22% and Stabilise FX to Achieve $1 Trillion Economy by 2031 – Afrinvest Report
Nigeria will need to sustain an annual GDP growth rate of about 22 per cent and maintain a stable exchange rate of around ₦1,500/$ to reach its ambitious $1 trillion economy target by 2031, according to the 20th Nigerian Banking Sector Report by Afrinvest West Africa Limited. The report, released in Lagos during Afrinvest’s 30th anniversary celebration, highlights the scale of reforms and investment required to transform the country’s economic trajectory.
Afrinvest noted that with Nigeria’s rebased GDP currently standing at ₦372.8 trillion, the country’s growth and currency stability are non-negotiable for hitting the trillion-dollar mark. Despite President Bola Tinubu’s optimism that the banking sector can drive the vision, the report warned that long-standing structural bottlenecks must be addressed to unlock broad-based growth beyond a few service-driven industries.
The launch event attracted top industry players, including leading bank executives and capital market stakeholders. Discussions centred on how tighter monetary policies, improved investor confidence, and a more resilient financial sector can curb inflation, stabilise the naira, and support growth. The report also pointed out that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under Olayemi Cardoso, has raised interest rates by a cumulative 875 basis points to 27.5 per cent between February and November 2024 to contain inflation and defend the currency.
Afrinvest revealed that Nigerian banks have collectively raised more than ₦2.5 trillion through rights issues, public offerings, and private placements by mid-2025 to meet recapitalisation requirements. At least four major lenders—Access Corporation, Zenith Bank, Ecobank, and Lotus Bank—have already crossed the new thresholds, while others are considering mergers and acquisitions ahead of the June 2026 deadline. The banking sector’s GDP contribution grew by 15 per cent in real terms in the first quarter of 2025, making it one of the top 10 contributors to national output.
Speaking at the unveiling, Afrinvest’s Group Managing Director, Dr. Ike Chioke, described the firm’s three-decade journey as one of resilience and innovation across turbulent economic cycles—from Nigeria’s return to democracy to global financial crises and the COVID-19 shock. He said the landmark 20th edition of the report serves as both a roadmap and a call to action for policymakers, investors, and financial institutions to drive the reforms needed to build a trillion-dollar economy.
source: the guardian