Nigeria Faces 18.9% Oil Production Deficit, Missing 2025 Budget Target by 82.5 Million Barrels
Seven months into the 2025 fiscal year, Nigeria’s crude oil output has fallen short of projections by 82.46 million barrels, representing an 18.9% deficit against the Federal Government’s production target. This shortfall threatens the revenue assumptions underpinning the 2025 budget, which relies heavily on oil income for funding government expenditure.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that between January and July 2025, the country pumped 354.26 million barrels of crude oil compared to the budget benchmark of 436.72 million barrels. The Appropriation Act had projected an average daily production of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) at a price benchmark of $75 per barrel.
Month-on-month analysis highlights consistent underperformance. In January, production hit 53.86 million barrels versus a 63.86 million target, while February dropped to 44.81 million barrels against 57.68 million expected. Similar deficits were recorded in March and April, with actual outputs of 49.72 million and 50.50 million barrels, below the respective targets of 61.80 million and 63.86 million barrels.
Although output improved slightly in June and July, it remained below projections. June’s production reached 50.91 million barrels versus a 61.80 million target, and July closed at 53.08 million barrels compared to the expected 63.86 million. July’s daily average stood at 1.712 million bpd—an uptick from June’s 1.697 million bpd—yet still below the 2.06 million bpd benchmark. NUPRC reported that peak production in July hit 1.84 million bpd, while the lowest was 1.66 million bpd.
Despite the gap, Nigeria slightly exceeded its OPEC quota with average crude output (excluding condensates) at 1.507 million bpd, or 100.5% compliance. However, experts, including the World Bank in its Nigeria Development Update, have warned that the budget assumptions of 2.1 million bpd and $75 per barrel were overly optimistic, raising concerns over revenue shortfalls and potential fiscal pressure.
Source: vanguard