Nigeria Needs 22% Annual Growth, FX Stability to Hit $1 Trillion Economy by 2030 – Report
Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is achievable but will require bold policy reforms, exchange rate stability, and disciplined execution, according to analysts at investment firm Norrenberger. In its H2 2025 Economic Outlook titled “The Great Recalibration: From Shock to Calm,” the firm noted that Nigeria’s economy, currently valued at $237.5 billion, has strong fundamentals but faces significant challenges.
The report highlighted that Nigeria’s nominal GDP has dropped sharply from $589.6 billion in 2022 and $341.2 billion in 2023, mainly due to severe naira depreciation. While growth in local currency terms has been moderate, the weakening exchange rate has eroded overall dollar-based output. Analysts warned that unless Nigeria sustains at least 22% annual nominal GDP growth while keeping the exchange rate stable at around ₦1,200/$, the 2030 economic target will remain out of reach.
With just five years left, Nigeria’s current trajectory—averaging around 4% real growth and 15% nominal growth annually—falls well short of what is needed. Norrenberger stressed that hitting the $1 trillion milestone demands more than optimistic forecasts, calling for coordinated policy action across monetary, fiscal, and structural fronts. Collaboration between the government and private sector, the report added, is critical to creating a sustainable growth path.
The report also drew lessons from Indonesia’s economic transformation, where the country achieved a $1 trillion economy after nearly 25 years of consistent reforms. Indonesia maintained exchange rate stability, invested heavily in infrastructure, diversified exports, and tackled corruption—policies that delivered an average of 9% annual growth. Norrenberger suggested that Nigeria could replicate this model by implementing similar structural reforms tailored to its own economic realities.
In conclusion, analysts warned that Nigeria cannot rely solely on its vast natural resources, youthful population, and large domestic market. Instead, the government must take transformative steps to restore investor confidence, stabilize the currency, and boost productivity. With decisive action, the report maintained, Nigeria stands a realistic chance of hitting its $1 trillion economy ambition by 2030.
Source: This day