Dangote Refinery Reshapes Global Fuel Trade as European Plants Face Closure Risks

European refiners are facing mounting pressure as Nigeria’s 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dangote refinery ramps up production, slashing the continent’s once-dominant gasoline exports to West Africa. Since commencing operations in September 2024, Africa’s largest refinery has steadily reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol, triggering fears of permanent closures among vulnerable European plants.

Industry data shows gasoline shipments from Europe to West Africa fell to 285,000 bpd between January and July 2025—a one-third decline compared to last year. The Dangote facility, located near Lagos, received a record 595,000 bpd of crude in July alone, underscoring its rapid progress toward full operational capacity. For European refiners, this sharp drop in exports has squeezed profit margins, particularly for those heavily reliant on petrol output.

According to Argus Media, Nigeria, which once bought one in every five barrels of gasoline from Europe, now purchases only one in 10. Stocks in Rotterdam, Europe’s refining hub, are up 9% year-on-year, while refiners shift toward diesel production to offset the slump. Analysts warn that unless an additional 600,000 bpd of gasoline capacity is shuttered or repurposed, the oversupply will worsen, leaving older and less flexible refineries highly exposed.

The recent insolvency of the UK’s Lindsey refinery highlights the risks. The 50,000 bpd plant, owned by U.S. firm Prax, closed in July after failing to secure a buyer. While larger operators like Valero have redirected output to more adaptable facilities such as its Pembroke refinery in Wales, many European refiners lack such options. Market sources suggest plants in the UK and Mediterranean regions could be next in line, as investor interest continues to decline.

Meanwhile, Dangote is consolidating its position as a regional game-changer. By refining domestic crude, Nigeria is cutting fuel imports, strengthening energy security, and reshaping global trade flows across the Atlantic Basin. With the capacity to produce petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, the refinery has forced European players to rethink business models or risk obsolescence. Analysts stress that this shift is structural, not temporary: Dangote has redrawn the fuel trade map, leaving Europe with hard choices about capacity, competitiveness, and survival.

Source: Business day